Project Lighthouse - Illuminating Global Conflicts

Overview of the Crisis

In early 2025, al-Shabaab launched a major offensive across Somalia's Middle and Lower Shabelle regions, marking the most significant resurgence in years. This offensive has caused extensive civilian harm, mass displacement, and devastated crucial agricultural zones—already weakened by severe drought and flood cycles.

The Roots of the Situation

This crisis stems from decades of instability and environmental challenges:

Persistent Instability Since 1991

Following state collapse and the rise of armed factions, Somalia has remained fragmented and conflict-prone.

Al-Shabaab Insurgency

An al‑Qaeda-affiliated insurgent group has long contested control over southern and central Somalia.

Resurgent Threat

The February 2025 Shabelle offensive marked the group's most ambitious attack since 2019, reclaiming rural towns and military outposts.

Climate Shocks

A historic drought followed by destructive El Niño floods has crippled livelihoods, leaving millions vulnerable in conflict zones.

The Current Humanitarian Impact

Displacement and Civilian Harm

Tens of thousands have fled to urban camps—many displaced for a second or third time. The violent advance has led to hundreds of civilian casualties and instilled fear, disrupting already fragile communities.

Restricted Humanitarian Access

Roads are now impassable and dangerous; aid convoys and medical teams face high risk from ambushes and attacks.

Increasing Food Insecurity

UN assessments warn that much of Somalia is facing emergency-level hunger (IPC Phase 4), with further deterioration expected if aid cannot reach Shabelle's agricultural heartland.

We survived drought… floods… now we run from guns. There is nowhere left for us to go.
— Displaced farmer from Lower Shabelle

International Response & Aid Challenges

Highly experienced humanitarian actors are stretched thin; logistics are hampered by violence and insecurity. Health and water services in local clinics and camps are overwhelmed and frequently suspended due to nearby fighting.

Funding gaps continue, forcing agencies to downscale assistance amid increasing humanitarian need.

Our teams and supplies are ready—but without safe access, lives cannot be saved.
— Aid logistics coordinator

Urgent Priority Needs

Immediate action is required to address the escalating crisis:

Ceasefire or Reduction in Hostilities: To enable safe humanitarian aid delivery to affected populations.
Emergency Food and Nutrition Support: Critical assistance to avert famine in the agricultural heartland.
Clean Water, Sanitation, and Healthcare: Notably in cholera‑prone camps and displacement sites.
Protection Measures: For displaced civilians, with special focus on women and children.

The Shabelle Offensive and Deepening Crisis in Somalia